After the draft withdrawal agreement reached with the EU was opposed from all sides, European Research Group chairman Jacob Rees-Mogg publicly submitting a letter of no-confidence in Theresa May, current leader of the Conservative party.
To force a vote of no-confidence in a Conservative party leader, at least 15% of MPs from the party must submit a letter of no confidence to the chairman of the ‘1922 Committee’.
As of the last general election, the Conservatives have 315 MPs, therefore 48 votes are needed to force a vote of no-confidence.
In the vote of no confidence that follows, all serving Conservative MPs will be able to cast their vote for or against the serving the current leader.
At this point, the leader must win a majority of these votes – Theresa May will need at least 159 votes in order to keep her job. If not, the leader must stand down, and a leadership race ensues.
How many have been submitted?
This is where it becomes complex. The chairman of the committee, Graham Brady, keeps his cards ‘or his letters’ very close to his chest, and msot believe we will not know how many letter she has until a vote is called.
After Jacob Rees-Mogg submitted his letter of no-confidence very publicly, rumours swirled as to whether there were enough votes to force a no-confidence vote.
Currently nobody knows how many there are, but most accept there are a significant number. Many MPs submitted letter earlier this year provisionally, and are now believed to have told Graham Brady that the letters are now ‘live’.
However, Speaking to Sky news on Sunday, the PM said that the Tory committee chairman Graham Brady had not been handed 48 letters of no-confidence “as far as I know.”
What happens if the May loses the vote?
If May loses the vote of no-confidence, then MPs will be able to put themselves forward for a leadership contest.
If there are more than two candidates, these will enter a first past the post voting system where the MPs with the fewest votes will be removed until there is two remaining. At this point, the vote is opened up to the wider Conservative membership to choose the next leader.
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