Politics update: Government analysis shows UK worse off under ‘all possible’ Brexit scenarios

Politics Update 11.02.2019

Chancellor says UK will be worse off ‘under all possible Brexit scenarios’

Philip Hammon Brexit UK Economy

The chancellor, Philip Hammond, has admitted the UK economy will be worse off in all possible Brexit scenarios, after an analysis by the government covering a 15-year period after Brexit showed the economy would suffer under each possible outcome.

In an interview with Sky News, the Chancellor admitted that the British public would fee the ‘cost’ of leaving, saying the UK economy would be a “little bit smaller” than it would if the country remained in the EU.

Hammond said: “The economy will be, in any of these scenarios, a little bit smaller than it would have been if we’d remained inside the European Union.”

The government’s analysis left the prime minister open to questions from the House of Commons on Wednesday afternoon, where Labour lead Jeremy Corbyn and opposition parties questioned whether her Brexit deal was acceptable considering the results of the damning report.

What’s in the government’s analysis?

An analysis by the government covering a 15-year period after Brexit was released on Monday, and showed that under every possible exit scenario, the growth of the UK economy would be slowed.

Key points:

  • The prime minister’s original Chequer’s proposal, which included frictionless trade – and was ultimately rejected by the EU – would hit GDP by 2.5 – 0.6 per cent.
  • A deal without frictionless trade, closer to the one on the table, would impact GDP by 2.1 – 3.9 per cent.
  • A no-deal Brexit would hit GDP by 7.7 – 9.3 per cent.
  • The impact of trade under Chequers and under a deal similar to the one of the table would hit London the hardest out of all regions, whereas a no-deal scenario would impact the capital the least.

Farage ally under investigation in Trump-Russia case

Ted Malloch Nigel Farage

Ted Malloch, a London-based academic close to Nigel Farage, was allegedly asked to get advance copies of emails stolen from Trump opponents by Russian hackers and later published by Wikileaks.

Malloch is facing an investigation by Robert Mueller, the special prosecutor investigation links between the Trump campaign and Russia during the 2016 election campaign.

On Tuesday it was revealed that Trump’s former campaign manager, Paul Manafort, held secret talks with Julian Assange inside the Ecuadorian embassy in London during the 2016 election.

These two new cases bring intense scrutiny to the Trump campaign’s possible collusion with Russia, and the campaign’s possible involvement in the email hacking scandal. Trump has already hit back at the investigation, tweeting on Wednesday that Mueller was “viciously telling witnesses to lie about facts”.

Jo Johnson: May’s Brexit deal could cause historic election defeat

Jo Johnson Brexit

Jo Johnson, brother of Boris, the MP who resigned in protest of Theresa May’s Brexit plans earlier this year, will tell an audience at an event on Thursday that the deal currently on the table could lead to the Conservative party facing an election defeat, the likes of which the party has not seen since 1997.

In an attack on May’s Brexit deal, Johnson will say that the label of a ‘Tory Brexit’ could lead the party into a catastrophic election defeat, and damage the party “for years to come”.

In an event organised by the People’s Vote campaign, Johnson will say: “The Conservative Party’s reputation for economic competence would be undermined by implementing a botched Brexit, especially one that the government’s own analysis suggests will cause economic harm.”

“Brexit is seen as a project driven by the Conservative Party and this half-baked worst of all words Brexit could trigger an electoral defeat on the scale of 1997 or worse, this ‘Tory Brexit’ label will be an albatross around our necks for years to come.”

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